Crypto terms, explained plainly
124 short definitions and a handful of guides. Every term links to the coins and charts where you will meet it, and the ones the model actually uses say so.
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- 200-day moving averageTechnical analysis
A long-run trend line; price above it is widely read as a bull market filter.
A
- Admin key / upgrade keySecurity
The privileged control that can upgrade, pause or drain a contract.
- AirdropOn-chain
Free tokens distributed to wallets, usually to reward past use or to bootstrap a protocol.
- All-time high (ATH)Basics
The highest price a coin has ever traded at, and often the level holders watch first.
- AltcoinBasics
Any crypto asset other than Bitcoin; a broad label rather than a shared design.
An exchange that prices trades with a formula and pooled liquidity instead of an order book.
- Average True Range (ATR)Technical analysis
The average size of a period's full range, used to size stops and compare volatility.
B
- Base caseOur model
The median of a forecast distribution: half of the model's outcomes sit above it.
- BetaMacro
How much an asset moves when the market moves: 1.5 means 50% more than the benchmark.
- Bid–ask spreadTrading
The gap between the highest buy order and the lowest sell order: a cost you pay to trade now.
- Bitcoin dominanceBasics
Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap, used as a rough risk-appetite gauge.
- BlockOn-chain
A batch of transactions appended to the chain, with a header that links it backwards.
- Block explorerOn-chain
A site that shows the raw contents of a chain: transactions, addresses and contracts.
- BreakoutTechnical analysis
A move out of a range or technical level, often on rising volume.
- BridgeSecurity
A service that moves assets between chains, and one of the most exploited pieces of infrastructure.
- Brier scoreOur model
Mean squared error of probability forecasts; 0.25 is the score of a coin flip.
C
- CalibrationOur model
How closely stated confidence matches the real hit rate of calls made at that confidence.
- Circulating supplyBasics
The coins that exist and can be traded right now, as opposed to the total ever created.
- Cold storageSecurity
Keeping keys offline on a device that never connects to the internet.
- CollateralDeFi
Assets locked to back a loan or a stablecoin, seized if the position falls below its ratio.
- ConfidenceOur model
The probability of the call's direction, as a number the site publishes next to every forecast.
- ConfirmationOn-chain
A block added on top of the one containing your transaction, increasing finality.
- Consensus mechanismBasics
The rule that decides which version of a chain's history is correct — proof of work or proof of stake.
- CorrelationMacro
How closely two assets move together, from −1 to +1, measured over a window.
- Custodial walletWallets
A wallet where a company holds the keys and you hold an account with the company.
D
On-chain governance by token holders, usually with proposals, votes and a treasury.
Financial services run by smart contracts on a blockchain, without a bank in the middle.
Which way the model leans; neutral means it has no edge over a coin flip at that horizon.
- Dollar index (DXY)Macro
The dollar against a basket of currencies; a stronger dollar is usually a headwind for crypto.
- DrawdownBasics
The fall from a previous peak to the current low; max drawdown is the worst one on record.
E
- ERC-20Tokens
The most common fungible-token standard on Ethereum and its compatible chains.
- Exchange flowOn-chain
Net movement of a coin onto or off exchanges, read as a selling or holding signal.
- Expected returnOur model
The mean outcome a distribution implies; the base case sits near it when the direction model is on.
F
- Forecast range (low–base–high)Our model
A probabilistic band: the 10th percentile low, the median base and the 90th percentile high.
- ForkBasics
A change to a blockchain's rules; a soft fork is compatible, a hard fork splits the chain.
Price times max supply: what the coin would be worth if every token existed.
- Funding rateTrading
The periodic payment between long and short perpetual traders that keeps the contract near spot.
G
- Gas feeOn-chain
The fee paid to have a transaction included in a block; priced by network demand.
- Gasless transactionWallets
A transaction where a third party pays the network fee, often via account abstraction.
- Genesis blockBasics
The first block of a blockchain, the anchor every later block traces back to.
- Governance tokenTokens
A token that grants voting rights over a protocol's parameters and treasury.
- GradingOur model
Automatically scoring a forecast at expiry against the recorded price, wins and losses alike.
H
- HalvingBasics
The scheduled cut in new Bitcoin issued per block, every 210,000 blocks, roughly four years.
- Hardware walletSecurity
A dedicated device that holds keys and signs transactions after you confirm on it.
- Hash rateOn-chain
The total computing power securing a proof-of-work chain.
- Hit rateOur model
The share of graded calls that were correct, by horizon and by model version.
- Honeypot tokenSecurity
A token whose contract lets you buy but blocks selling.
I
- Impermanent lossDeFi
The gap between supplying liquidity and simply holding the two assets as prices diverge.
- InflationMacro
The rate at which prices rise, and the reason 'hard-capped supply' is a selling point.
- Institutional flowMacro
Buying or selling by funds and companies, usually visible only through filings and ETFs.
- Interest rateMacro
The central-bank policy rate; higher rates tend to pull money out of risk assets.
L
- Layer 1Basics
A base blockchain that settles its own transactions, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana.
- Layer 2Basics
A network that executes transactions cheaply and settles them on a layer 1.
- LeverageTrading
Using borrowed exposure so a small price move produces a large gain or loss.
- Limit orderTrading
An order that only executes at your price or better, and can sit unfilled.
- LiquidationTrading
Forced closing of a leveraged position when its margin falls below the maintenance level.
- LiquidityTrading
How easily you can buy or sell without moving the price: depth, spread and turnover together.
- Liquidity cycleMacro
The broad expansion and contraction of money available to risk assets.
- Liquidity poolDeFi
Tokens locked in a contract that traders swap against, earning the pool's fee share.
M
- MACDTechnical analysis
The gap between a fast and a slow moving average; its signal line smooths that gap again.
- MarginTrading
The collateral you post to hold a leveraged position, and what a liquidation consumes.
Price multiplied by circulating supply: what the market says a coin is worth in total.
- Market orderTrading
An order that executes immediately at the best available price, consuming the book.
- Max supplyBasics
The hard ceiling on how many coins a protocol will ever create, where one exists.
- Mean reversionTechnical analysis
The tendency of a stretched price to move back toward its recent average.
- MemecoinTokens
A token with little or no utility, whose price is driven by attention and community.
- MinerOn-chain
An operator that produces proof-of-work blocks and earns the block reward and fees.
- Model gateOur model
The rule that hides a forecast when the model could not beat a coin flip on it.
- MomentumTechnical analysis
The speed of recent price change; strong momentum tends to persist over short horizons.
- Moving averageTechnical analysis
The average price over the last N periods, redrawn each period, used as a trend baseline.
- Multisignature walletSecurity
A wallet that needs several keys to approve a transaction, removing a single point of failure.
N
- No setupOur model
The hourly board's 'no trade' state: confidence did not clear the threshold, so nothing is called.
- Non-custodial walletWallets
A wallet where you hold the keys and nobody can freeze or recover your funds.
O
- On-chain dataOn-chain
Facts recorded directly by a blockchain: transfers, balances, contract state.
- Open interestTrading
The total value of futures positions currently open, a measure of how much leverage is in play.
- Order bookTrading
The standing bids and asks at each price on an exchange, and the size waiting there.
- Overbought / oversoldTechnical analysis
Descriptions of a one-sided move (RSI above 70 or below 30), not predictions of a reversal.
- OverfittingOur model
Fitting noise instead of signal, so a model looks brilliant on old data and fails live.
P
- PegBasics
The target price a stablecoin or wrapped asset is meant to hold, usually $1.
- Perpetual futuresTrading
A derivative that tracks an asset with no expiry, held open by periodic funding payments.
- PhishingSecurity
Fake sites and messages that imitate a real service to capture keys or approvals.
- PresaleTokens
Selling a token before it lists publicly, usually to raise money for a project.
- Price oracleDeFi
The data feed a contract reads to learn an asset's price from outside the chain.
- Private keySecurity
The secret that proves ownership of a wallet; anyone holding it controls the funds.
- Probability upOur model
The model's raw probability that the price is higher at expiry, before calibration.
- Proof of stakeBasics
Consensus by locking tokens to propose and attest blocks, with slashing for misbehaviour.
- Proof of workBasics
Consensus by spending compute to find a hash below a target; Bitcoin's original mechanism.
- Public addressWallets
The shareable identifier you give someone to receive funds; safe to publish.
R
- Regulatory riskMacro
The chance that a law or enforcement action changes who can hold, trade or list an asset.
- ResistanceTechnical analysis
A price area where selling has repeatedly capped rallies.
- Risk scoreOur model
A 0–100 blend of volatility, liquidity, size, drawdown, exchange count and age.
- Risk-on / risk-offMacro
Whether investors are adding or removing risk; crypto usually trades as a risk asset.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index)Technical analysis
A 0–100 momentum oscillator; above 70 is called overbought, below 30 oversold.
- Rug pullSecurity
A project that takes deposits and then removes the liquidity or dumps its own supply.
S
- Seed phraseSecurity
Twelve or 24 words that regenerate every key in a wallet; never type it into a website.
- Short squeezeTrading
A rapid rise forced by shorts buying back, which can feed on itself in thin markets.
- SlippageTrading
The difference between the price you expected and the price you got, from moving the book yourself.
- Smart contractDeFi
Code deployed to a blockchain that runs automatically when its conditions are met.
- Smart-contract auditSecurity
A paid review of contract code by a security firm; evidence of diligence, not a guarantee.
The chance that a contract's code or admin keys take your funds, regardless of price.
- Social recoveryWallets
Recovering a wallet through trusted guardians instead of a single seed phrase.
- Spot ETFMacro
A listed fund holding the underlying asset, letting ordinary brokerage accounts own it.
- StablecoinBasics
A token designed to hold a constant price, usually one US dollar, by holding reserves or collateral.
- StakingDeFi
Locking tokens to back a network or a protocol, usually for a yield of new issuance or fees.
- SupportTechnical analysis
A price area where buying has repeatedly absorbed selling, so declines have stalled there.
T
- Token approvalSecurity
Permission you grant a contract to move a token of yours, sometimes without a limit.
- Token standardTokens
A shared contract interface, such as ERC-20, so wallets and exchanges can support a token.
The value of assets deposited in a protocol's contracts; its main usage measure.
- Track recordOur model
The public log of every graded call, including the losses, with the calibration behind the confidence.
- Trading rangeTechnical analysis
A period where price stays between a support and a resistance level.
- Trading volumeTrading
The value traded over a period, usually 24 hours; a measure of interest and turnover.
- TrendTechnical analysis
A persistent direction in price — higher highs and higher lows, or the reverse.
U
- Utility tokenTokens
A token meant to be used inside a product, for fees, access or collateral.
V
- ValidatorDeFi
A node that proposes and attests blocks in a proof-of-stake network.
- VestingTokens
A schedule that releases tokens to a team or investor over time instead of at once.
- VolatilityTechnical analysis
How much a price swings, usually annualised from recent returns; the core input to any range.
- Volume z-scoreTechnical analysis
How many standard deviations today's volume is from its recent average.
W
- Walk-forward backtestOur model
Testing the model only on data after each training window, the way it would have been used.
- WalletWallets
Software or hardware that holds keys and signs transactions; it does not hold coins.
- Wallet drainerWallets
Malicious code or a signed transaction that moves all approved assets out of a wallet.
- Watch-only walletWallets
A wallet that can see balances and history but cannot sign anything.
- WhaleOn-chain
A holder large enough that its transfers can move the market or fill an order book.
- Wrapped assetBasics
A token that represents an asset from another chain, held by a custodian or a bridge contract.
Y
- Yield farmingDeFi
Chasing token incentives across protocols to earn the highest annualised yield.