What is Base case?
The median of a forecast distribution: half of the model's outcomes sit above it.
The base case is what the site quotes in headlines because it is easy to compare across coins. It is not a target and it is not more likely than any other single price.
When the direction model is switched on, the base case shifts with the expected return. When it is off, the base case stays near the current price.
Related terms
- Forecast range (low–base–high)Our model
A probabilistic band: the 10th percentile low, the median base and the 90th percentile high.
- Expected returnOur model
The mean outcome a distribution implies; the base case sits near it when the direction model is on.
- ConfidenceOur model
The probability of the call's direction, as a number the site publishes next to every forecast.