What is Expected return?
The mean outcome a distribution implies; the base case sits near it when the direction model is on.
The model's distribution has a location and a width. Expected return is the location, shifted by the directional signal when a horizon passes its gate.
It is a statistical mean, not a target. A coin with a positive expected return can still fall, and often does in a single sample.
How our model uses it
When the direction gate is off, the expected return is zero and the range is centred on the current price — the honest 'no edge' answer.
Related terms
- Base caseOur model
The median of a forecast distribution: half of the model's outcomes sit above it.
- Forecast range (low–base–high)Our model
A probabilistic band: the 10th percentile low, the median base and the 90th percentile high.
Which way the model leans; neutral means it has no edge over a coin flip at that horizon.