What is Forecast range (low–base–high)?
A probabilistic band: the 10th percentile low, the median base and the 90th percentile high.
Every horizon on a coin page publishes a range, not a single number. The low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the model's distribution, so about 80% of outcomes should fall inside.
The base case is the median — the middle of the distribution, not the most likely single price. A range that looks wide is usually an honest statement about volatility.
How our model uses it
Ranges are produced from volatility-scaled quantiles fitted on pooled history, with the direction model shifting the distribution when a horizon clears its gate.
Related terms
- Base caseOur model
The median of a forecast distribution: half of the model's outcomes sit above it.
- CalibrationOur model
How closely stated confidence matches the real hit rate of calls made at that confidence.
- Hit rateOur model
The share of graded calls that were correct, by horizon and by model version.
- VolatilityTechnical analysis
How much a price swings, usually annualised from recent returns; the core input to any range.