What is Track record?
The public log of every graded call, including the losses, with the calibration behind the confidence.
A track record is only meaningful if it is complete. The one on this site is computed from graded prediction rows, by horizon and by model version, and the CSV is the same data.
It starts empty and fills in as calls expire. Rates below 30 graded calls render as 'Collecting' rather than as a number that would be noise.
Related terms
- GradingOur model
Automatically scoring a forecast at expiry against the recorded price, wins and losses alike.
- Hit rateOur model
The share of graded calls that were correct, by horizon and by model version.
- CalibrationOur model
How closely stated confidence matches the real hit rate of calls made at that confidence.