What is Hit rate?
The share of graded calls that were correct, by horizon and by model version.
For ranges, a hit is the actual price landing inside the low–high band. For direction, it is the call being right about up or down. Hit rates are shown separately because they answer different questions.
The site shows a hit rate only once at least 30 calls have been graded; below that it says 'Collecting' rather than quoting a number from a handful of calls.
Related terms
- Track recordOur model
The public log of every graded call, including the losses, with the calibration behind the confidence.
- CalibrationOur model
How closely stated confidence matches the real hit rate of calls made at that confidence.
- GradingOur model
Automatically scoring a forecast at expiry against the recorded price, wins and losses alike.