What is Probability up?
The model's raw probability that the price is higher at expiry, before calibration.
The classifier outputs the chance of a positive return over the horizon. Confidence is derived from it: the larger of p and 1−p, with the direction taken from whichever side is bigger.
Under 50% is not 'no signal'. It is a lean down, and the site shows it as bearish rather than hiding it.
Related terms
- ConfidenceOur model
The probability of the call's direction, as a number the site publishes next to every forecast.
- CalibrationOur model
How closely stated confidence matches the real hit rate of calls made at that confidence.
Which way the model leans; neutral means it has no edge over a coin flip at that horizon.