What is Direction (bullish, bearish, neutral)?
Which way the model leans; neutral means it has no edge over a coin flip at that horizon.
A bullish or bearish call needs both a probability above the threshold and a horizon that passed its gate. Otherwise the forecast publishes as neutral on the plain baseline range.
Neutral is the most common state on the site, and that is deliberate: publishing a weak call as confident is how prediction sites lose credibility.
Related terms
- Model gateOur model
The rule that hides a forecast when the model could not beat a coin flip on it.
- ConfidenceOur model
The probability of the call's direction, as a number the site publishes next to every forecast.
- No setupOur model
The hourly board's 'no trade' state: confidence did not clear the threshold, so nothing is called.