What is Confidence?
The probability of the call's direction, as a number the site publishes next to every forecast.
Confidence is the model's estimated probability that the horizon ends higher (for a bullish call) or lower (for a bearish one). A 64% confidence means 64 out of 100 comparable calls went that way.
The number is calibrated rather than raw: a sigmoid correction fitted on held-out data maps scores to observed frequencies, so 70% means about 70%.
How our model uses it
Calibration is fitted after the classifier is trained, on a later slice the trees never saw.
Related terms
- CalibrationOur model
How closely stated confidence matches the real hit rate of calls made at that confidence.
- Probability upOur model
The model's raw probability that the price is higher at expiry, before calibration.
- Hit rateOur model
The share of graded calls that were correct, by horizon and by model version.