Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range82%of 8,778 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct66%of 8,778 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.9%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded8,778Last 90 days · since 12 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls · 417 of 8,778 graded calls — only calls whose confidence fell in a bin are plotted.

No 30-day confidence bins have been graded yet, so the chart shows the 1 hour calls, which have.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 51% direction · 417 calls

24 hours82% in range · 54% direction · 5,307 calls

7 days81% in range · 83% direction · 3,471 calls

Best calls this month

BRSRV · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00 ALFW · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$3.20 → $3.20 PC0016245 · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00

Worst misses this month

UMXM · 7 days, made 2 Novbase $0.0170, actual $0.00630 STONK · 7 days, made 2 Novbase $0.119, actual $0.0445 UMXM · 7 days, made 1 Novbase $0.0123, actual $0.00620

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
ADI	24 hours	27 Oct	$8.05	$7.95 – $8.15	$8.04	0.2%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
HASH	7 days	27 Oct	$0.00775	$0.00564 – $0.0108	$0.00648	19.5%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NOPAL	24 hours	27 Oct	$1.11	$1.11 – $1.11	$1.11	0.0%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
PC0000049	24 hours	27 Oct	$1.00	$1.00 – $1.00	$1.00	0.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
VBILL	24 hours	27 Oct	$1.00	$1.00 – $1.00	$1.00	0.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
YELLOW	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.154	$0.111 – $0.213	$0.158	2.4%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
NEAR	7 days	27 Oct	$4.46	$3.64 – $5.52	$3.87	15.2%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NEO	7 days	27 Oct	$2.08	$1.88 – $2.31	$1.96	6.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
CKB	7 days	27 Oct	$0.00139	$0.00112 – $0.00175	$0.00117	19.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
AB	7 days	27 Oct	$0.000528	$0.000494 – $0.000566	$0.000519	1.6%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 5931–5940 of 8,778Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.