Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range82%of 9,609 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct64%of 9,609 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.9%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded9,609Last 90 days · since 12 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls · 424 of 9,609 graded calls — only calls whose confidence fell in a bin are plotted.

No 30-day confidence bins have been graded yet, so the chart shows the 1 hour calls, which have.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 51% direction · 424 calls

24 hours83% in range · 52% direction · 5,725 calls

7 days81% in range · 82% direction · 3,884 calls

Best calls this month

BRSRV · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00 ALFW · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$3.20 → $3.20 PC0016245 · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00

Worst misses this month

UMXM · 7 days, made 2 Novbase $0.0170, actual $0.00630 STONK · 7 days, made 2 Novbase $0.119, actual $0.0445 UMXM · 7 days, made 3 Novbase $0.0137, actual $0.00630

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
NEXO	7 days	27 Oct	$0.805	$0.769 – $0.845	$0.738	9.1%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
NXPC	7 days	27 Oct	$0.170	$0.148 – $0.196	$0.165	3.1%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
牛来	7 days	27 Oct	$0.0531	$0.0366 – $0.0786	$0.0641	17.2%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
NPC	7 days	27 Oct	$0.0167	$0.0145 – $0.0195	$0.0154	8.6%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NMR	7 days	27 Oct	$9.64	$7.92 – $11.84	$9.48	1.7%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NVDAB	7 days	27 Oct	$216.26	$205.43 – $228.24	$203.91	6.1%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
NVDAX	7 days	27 Oct	$216.68	$205.70 – $228.84	$204.59	5.9%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
BRLV	7 days	27 Oct	$0.185	$0.172 – $0.199	$0.182	1.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
O	7 days	27 Oct	$0.427	$0.378 – $0.486	$0.400	6.7%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
ROSE	7 days	27 Oct	$0.00659	$0.00579 – $0.00755	$0.00579	13.8%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 5941–5950 of 8,778Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.