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Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

Inside the 80% range91%of 1,104 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.
Direction correct—no graded calls yetCoin flip is 50%
Median error, base case1.5%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry
Price predictions graded1,104Last 90 days · since 30 Jul 2026

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls (default horizon) · 102 graded calls

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 36% direction · 102 calls
24 hours91% in range · — direction · 1,104 calls

Every graded prediction

CSV
CoinHorizonMadeBaseRangeActualErrorResultModel
PIEVERSE24 hours25 Oct$1.05$1.00 – $1.10$1.032.0%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
XPL24 hours25 Oct$0.0743$0.0704 – $0.0785$0.07380.7%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
PLUME24 hours25 Oct$0.0159$0.0149 – $0.0169$0.01622.2%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-1302
DOT24 hours25 Oct$1.05$1.00 – $1.10$1.031.8%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
POL24 hours25 Oct$0.0897$0.0865 – $0.0931$0.08930.5%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
POLYX24 hours25 Oct$0.0345$0.0333 – $0.0357$0.03352.9%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
PONS24 hours25 Oct$0.233$0.212 – $0.257$0.2402.8%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-1302
PROM24 hours25 Oct$5.39$4.97 – $5.84$5.471.5%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-1302
XPR24 hours25 Oct$0.00186$0.00180 – $0.00192$0.001850.6%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
PENGU24 hours25 Oct$0.00764$0.00730 – $0.00799$0.007491.9%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
Showing 561–570 of 1,104Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.