Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range83%of 8,125 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct64%of 8,125 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.8%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded8,125Last 90 days · since 10 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls · 399 of 8,125 graded calls — only calls whose confidence fell in a bin are plotted.

No 30-day confidence bins have been graded yet, so the chart shows the 1 hour calls, which have.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 50% direction · 399 calls

24 hours83% in range · 52% direction · 4,977 calls

7 days82% in range · 83% direction · 3,148 calls

Best calls this month

BRSRV · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00 ALFW · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$3.20 → $3.20 PC0016245 · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00

Worst misses this month

UMXM · 7 days, made 1 Novbase $0.0123, actual $0.00620 AKE · 7 days, made 1 Novbase $0.0105, actual $0.00569 JCT · 7 days, made 1 Novbase $0.00458, actual $0.00283

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
BONK	7 days	28 Oct	$0.00000305	$0.00000270 – $0.00000346	$0.00000289	5.5%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
B	7 days	28 Oct	$0.134	$0.116 – $0.157	$0.130	3.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
CC	7 days	28 Oct	$0.0986	$0.0862 – $0.114	$0.0965	2.2%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
CAP	7 days	28 Oct	$0.0925	$0.0648 – $0.135	$0.0734	26.1%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
ADA	7 days	28 Oct	$0.205	$0.185 – $0.228	$0.190	7.8%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
CASHCAT	7 days	28 Oct	$0.103	$0.0786 – $0.136	$0.107	3.8%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
TIA	7 days	28 Oct	$0.531	$0.434 – $0.657	$0.434	22.5%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
SN51	7 days	28 Oct	$30.62	$27.49 – $34.28	$26.43	15.8%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
CELO	7 days	28 Oct	$0.0811	$0.0730 – $0.0904	$0.0724	12.0%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
XCN	7 days	28 Oct	$0.00402	$0.00357 – $0.00456	$0.00356	12.9%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 4141–4150 of 7,472Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.