Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range82%of 6,806 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct64%of 6,806 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.8%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded6,806Last 90 days · since 9 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls · 369 of 6,806 graded calls — only calls whose confidence fell in a bin are plotted.

No 30-day confidence bins have been graded yet, so the chart shows the 1 hour calls, which have.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 48% direction · 369 calls

24 hours82% in range · 53% direction · 4,313 calls

7 days81% in range · 83% direction · 2,493 calls

Best calls this month

BRSRV · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00 ALFW · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$3.20 → $3.20 PC0016245 · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00

Worst misses this month

ELF · 24 hours, made 3 Novbase $0.0403, actual $0.0708 UMXM · 24 hours, made 3 Novbase $0.0143, actual $0.0107 IDOL · 24 hours, made 1 Novbase $0.0175, actual $0.0250

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
ZIG	7 days	28 Oct	$0.0420	$0.0371 – $0.0479	$0.0410	2.5%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
ZK	7 days	28 Oct	$0.0119	$0.00988 – $0.0146	$0.0102	16.9%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
1INCH	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.0878	$0.0855 – $0.0900	$0.0885	0.8%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
A7A5	7 days	27 Oct	$0.0120	$0.0113 – $0.0127	$0.00177	576.3%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
ACU	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.117	$0.110 – $0.124	$0.145	19.6%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
NOXO	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.426	$0.416 – $0.436	$0.421	1.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
USD3	24 hours	27 Oct	$1.19	$1.19 – $1.20	$1.20	0.6%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
ALFW	24 hours	27 Oct	$3.20	$3.20 – $3.20	$3.20	0.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
BC	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.0322	$0.0306 – $0.0338	$0.0384	16.1%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
CX	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.0326	$0.0282 – $0.0377	$0.0325	0.4%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 3751–3760 of 6,806Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.