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Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

Inside the 80% range91%of 1,104 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.
Direction correct—no graded calls yetCoin flip is 50%
Median error, base case1.5%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry
Price predictions graded1,104Last 90 days · since 29 Jul 2026

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls (default horizon) · 90 graded calls

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 34% direction · 90 calls
24 hours91% in range · — direction · 1,104 calls

Every graded prediction

CSV
CoinHorizonMadeBaseRangeActualErrorResultModel
SN5124 hours25 Oct$29.53$28.32 – $30.78$29.750.7%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-1302
CELO24 hours25 Oct$0.0785$0.0755 – $0.0817$0.07711.8%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
CHZ24 hours25 Oct$0.0130$0.0125 – $0.0135$0.01291.3%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
CRCLB24 hours25 Oct$85.37$81.65 – $89.23$84.800.7%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
CRCLON24 hours25 Oct$85.30$81.63 – $89.10$84.730.7%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
CARDS24 hours25 Oct$0.319$0.279 – $0.364$0.2986.9%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
CVX24 hours25 Oct$2.52$2.37 – $2.69$2.482.0%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
COW24 hours25 Oct$0.129$0.124 – $0.134$0.1271.9%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
CTC24 hours25 Oct$0.0896$0.0863 – $0.0930$0.08910.5%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
ONE24 hours25 Oct$0.00132$0.00118 – $0.00147$0.001320.1%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-1302
Showing 351–360 of 1,104Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.