Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range82%of 4,961 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct65%of 4,961 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.8%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded4,961Last 90 days · since 6 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls · 308 of 4,961 graded calls — only calls whose confidence fell in a bin are plotted.

No 30-day confidence bins have been graded yet, so the chart shows the 1 hour calls, which have.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 44% direction · 308 calls

24 hours82% in range · 58% direction · 3,549 calls

7 days82% in range · 83% direction · 1,412 calls

Best calls this month

ADI · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$8.04 → $8.04 XRP · 24 hours, made 2 Nov$1.25 → $1.25 M · 24 hours, made 2 Nov$0.847 → $0.847

Worst misses this month

IDOL · 24 hours, made 1 Novbase $0.0175, actual $0.0250 UMXM · 24 hours, made 1 Novbase $0.0128, actual $0.0179 AKE · 24 hours, made 1 Novbase $0.0109, actual $0.00875

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
CRV	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.342	$0.325 – $0.361	$0.340	0.6%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
DOS	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.236	$0.220 – $0.253	$0.272	13.2%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
DASH	24 hours	27 Oct	$53.43	$51.05 – $55.90	$54.97	2.8%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
DBR	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.0157	$0.0150 – $0.0164	$0.0150	4.7%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
MANA	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.0788	$0.0755 – $0.0823	$0.0792	0.5%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
DCR	24 hours	27 Oct	$14.26	$13.81 – $14.72	$14.52	1.8%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
DRV	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.353	$0.322 – $0.387	$0.369	4.3%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
DEXE	24 hours	27 Oct	$1.59	$1.52 – $1.66	$1.63	2.3%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
DGAI	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.862	$0.824 – $0.901	$0.788	9.4%	Below range	1d-20261025-2100
DGB	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.00340	$0.00326 – $0.00354	$0.00335	1.4%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 1841–1850 of 4,291Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.