Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range83%of 4,291 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct62%of 4,291 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.7%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded4,291Last 90 days · since 5 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls · 267 of 4,291 graded calls — only calls whose confidence fell in a bin are plotted.

No 30-day confidence bins have been graded yet, so the chart shows the 1 hour calls, which have.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 43% direction · 267 calls

24 hours83% in range · 55% direction · 3,213 calls

7 days84% in range · 82% direction · 1,078 calls

Best calls this month

ADI · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$8.04 → $8.04 ARB · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$0.164 → $0.164 U · 24 hours, made 1 Nov$1.00 → $1.00

Worst misses this month

UMXM · 24 hours, made 1 Novbase $0.0128, actual $0.0179 AIN · 24 hours, made 1 Novbase $0.232, actual $0.289 AWE · 24 hours, made 1 Novbase $0.0737, actual $0.0617

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
BABY	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.0142	$0.0136 – $0.0148	$0.0145	2.3%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
BP	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.980	$0.903 – $1.06	$0.970	1.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
BANANAS31	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.00600	$0.00583 – $0.00618	$0.00622	3.5%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
BRETT	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.00465	$0.00442 – $0.00489	$0.00469	0.8%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
BAT	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.152	$0.137 – $0.168	$0.145	5.1%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
BEAM	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.00336	$0.00313 – $0.00361	$0.00333	1.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
BR	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.485	$0.400 – $0.588	$0.496	2.2%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
BDX	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.0743	$0.0712 – $0.0775	$0.0746	0.4%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
BERA	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.150	$0.141 – $0.160	$0.151	0.4%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
币安人生	24 hours	27 Oct	$0.508	$0.486 – $0.531	$0.513	1.0%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 1791–1800 of 4,291Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.