Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range80%of 2,439 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct62%of 2,439 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.8%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded2,439Last 90 days · since 1 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

Hover or tap a dot for its bin.

1 hour calls · 156 of 2,439 graded calls — only calls whose confidence fell in a bin are plotted.

No 30-day confidence bins have been graded yet, so the chart shows the 1 hour calls, which have.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

1 hourn/a in range · 40% direction · 156 calls

24 hours80% in range · 58% direction · 2,112 calls

7 days80% in range · 85% direction · 327 calls

Best calls this month

ALFW · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$3.20 → $3.20 BRSRV · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$1.00 → $1.00 PC0016245 · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$1.00 → $1.00

Worst misses this month

Q · 24 hours, made 27 Octbase $0.198, actual $0.0531 Q · 7 days, made 23 Octbase $0.116, actual $0.0491 ELF · 7 days, made 23 Octbase $0.0815, actual $0.0469

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
NVDAX	24 hours	26 Oct	$212.99	$209.04 – $216.99	$217.34	2.0%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
ONT	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.0501	$0.0483 – $0.0519	$0.0492	1.7%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NPC	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.0172	$0.0163 – $0.0181	$0.0169	1.9%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NMR	24 hours	26 Oct	$9.78	$9.08 – $10.52	$9.75	0.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
牛来	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.0543	$0.0472 – $0.0624	$0.0543	0.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NVDAB	24 hours	26 Oct	$212.49	$208.60 – $216.41	$216.91	2.0%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
NXPC	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.170	$0.162 – $0.179	$0.171	0.6%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
NEXO	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.810	$0.796 – $0.824	$0.807	0.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
NIL	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.0896	$0.0805 – $0.0996	$0.0904	0.9%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
OP	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.111	$0.103 – $0.119	$0.112	0.8%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 1141–1150 of 2,439Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.