Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range91%of 336 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct—no graded calls yetCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.7%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Price predictions graded336Last 90 days · since 27 Jul 2026

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

No calibration bins yet — they fill in as calls are graded.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

24 hours91% in range · — direction · 336 calls

Best calls this month

U · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$1.00 → $1.00 CRCLX · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$85.68 → $85.67 WBT · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$78.97 → $78.99

Worst misses this month

IRYS · 24 hours, made 23 Octbase $0.0205, actual $0.0765 JCT · 24 hours, made 23 Octbase $0.00452, actual $0.00262 VEREM · 24 hours, made 23 Octbase $17.20, actual $27.32

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
CHEEMS	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.00000043877	$0.00000042483 – $0.000000453065	$0.000000457	4.0%	Above range	1d-20261023-1104
CHZ	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.0132	$0.0127 – $0.0138	$0.0133	0.5%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261023-1104
CHIP	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.0443	$0.0403 – $0.0487	$0.0439	1.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
SN64	24 hours	23 Oct	$17.53	$16.74 – $18.35	$17.47	0.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
CRCLB	24 hours	23 Oct	$85.77	$81.81 – $89.90	$85.70	0.1%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
CRCLON	24 hours	23 Oct	$85.59	$81.69 – $89.66	$85.57	0.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
CRCLX	24 hours	23 Oct	$85.68	$81.80 – $89.71	$85.67	0.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
COCO	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.154	$0.152 – $0.156	$0.154	0.0%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
CARDS	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.347	$0.301 – $0.398	$0.340	1.9%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
ZRX	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.106	$0.102 – $0.111	$0.107	0.5%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261023-1104

Showing 61–70 of 336Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.