Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range91%of 336 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct—no graded calls yetCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.7%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Price predictions graded336Last 90 days · since 28 Jul 2026

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

No calibration bins yet — they fill in as calls are graded.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

24 hours91% in range · — direction · 336 calls

Best calls this month

U · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$1.00 → $1.00 CRCLX · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$85.68 → $85.67 WBT · 24 hours, made 23 Oct$78.97 → $78.99

Worst misses this month

IRYS · 24 hours, made 23 Octbase $0.0205, actual $0.0765 JCT · 24 hours, made 23 Octbase $0.00452, actual $0.00262 VEREM · 24 hours, made 23 Octbase $17.20, actual $27.32

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
PONS	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.248	$0.224 – $0.274	$0.241	2.7%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
PROM	24 hours	23 Oct	$5.56	$5.11 – $6.05	$5.69	2.2%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261023-1104
XPR	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.00186	$0.00180 – $0.00192	$0.00191	2.6%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261023-1104
PENGU	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.00780	$0.00743 – $0.00818	$0.00777	0.4%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
PUMP	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.00454	$0.00419 – $0.00493	$0.00429	5.8%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
PURR	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.0945	$0.0863 – $0.103	$0.0961	1.7%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261023-1104
PYTH	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.0721	$0.0675 – $0.0769	$0.0707	1.9%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
QTUM	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.853	$0.823 – $0.883	$0.863	1.2%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261023-1104
Q	24 hours	23 Oct	$0.120	$0.0955 – $0.150	$0.112	7.3%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104
QNT	24 hours	23 Oct	$186.92	$165.86 – $210.47	$181.59	2.9%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261023-1104

Showing 221–230 of 336Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.