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Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

Inside the 80% range83%of 3,213 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.
Direction correct55%of 3,213 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%
Median error, base case1.7%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry
Calls graded4,291Last 90 days · since 5 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

No calibration bins yet — they fill in as calls are graded.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

24 hours83% in range · 55% direction · 3,213 calls

Every graded prediction

CSV
CoinHorizonMadeBaseRangeActualErrorResultModel
APE24 hours26 Oct$0.126$0.120 – $0.132$0.1232.6%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-2100
APEPE24 hours26 Oct$0.00000118$0.00000113 – $0.00000123$0.000001180.4%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-2100
ANVL24 hours26 Oct$0.00169$0.00152 – $0.00188$0.001806.2%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-2100
ZCAT24 hours26 Oct$0.0468$0.0398 – $0.0549$0.04843.2%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-2100
AMP24 hours26 Oct$0.000733$0.000669 – $0.000802$0.0007113.1%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-2100
ALT24 hours26 Oct$0.00632$0.00547 – $0.00731$0.006441.8%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-2100
ALLO24 hours26 Oct$0.181$0.174 – $0.189$0.1852.1%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-2100
ALGO24 hours26 Oct$0.105$0.101 – $0.109$0.1060.8%In range · direction ✗1d-20261025-2100
ALEO24 hours26 Oct$0.0337$0.0292 – $0.0388$0.03234.2%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-2100
AKE24 hours26 Oct$0.0311$0.0259 – $0.0374$0.03052.1%In range · direction ✓1d-20261025-2100
Showing 2271–2280 of 3,213Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.