Every call, graded in public

Track record

When a prediction expires we compare it with the real price. Nothing is deleted or edited. Wins and misses both stay here, split by horizon and by the model version that made them.

All 1 hour 24 hours 7 days 30 days 90 days

Inside the 80% range80%of 2,458 callsTarget 80%. Close means honest ranges.

Direction correct54%of 2,458 calls base-case callsCoin flip is 50%

Median error, base case1.9%24 hours horizonBase case vs the price at expiry

Calls graded2,797Last 90 days · since 3 Aug 2026 · every horizonIncludes hourly signals; the cards above count priced calls only.

How to read these numbers

One call can be counted more than once, so the denominators differ on purpose. Calls graded is every expired call, hourly signals included. Inside the 80% range counts only the priced horizons, because a one-hour signal publishes no range. Direction correct counts the calls whose base case was graded against the real price — including the ones labelled neutral, which have no bullish or bearish lean but still either finished above or below where they started.

Calibration

When we say 70%, are we right 70% of the time? Dots on the line mean yes.

No calibration bins yet — they fill in as calls are graded.

By horizon

Range hit rate and direction accuracy.

24 hours80% in range · 54% direction · 2,458 calls

Every graded prediction

CSV

Coin	Horizon	Made	Base	Range	Actual	Error	Result	Model
B	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.127	$0.120 – $0.135	$0.133	4.4%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
EDU	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.0589	$0.0560 – $0.0621	$0.0602	2.1%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
EDGE	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.321	$0.301 – $0.341	$0.329	2.5%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100
OMI	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.000266	$0.000253 – $0.000280	$0.000264	0.9%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
XEC	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.00000670	$0.00000647 – $0.00000693	$0.00000706	5.2%	Above range	1d-20261025-2100
DYDX	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.107	$0.102 – $0.112	$0.107	0.6%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
DUSK	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.112	$0.104 – $0.120	$0.109	2.7%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
2Z	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.0289	$0.0272 – $0.0307	$0.0281	2.9%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
CC	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.101	$0.0960 – $0.107	$0.0996	1.6%	In range · direction ✓	1d-20261025-2100
WIF	24 hours	26 Oct	$0.179	$0.170 – $0.188	$0.181	1.4%	In range · direction ✗	1d-20261025-2100

Showing 1641–1650 of 2,458Load more

The detailed log covers the last 90 days, which is what the database retains; older calls live on in the daily totals above. Grades are final and never edited.

Read how the model works, or download the graded calls as CSV.